9001诚信金沙社会学院系列讲座 2016年第33讲总第439讲 题目：Impacts of Climate vs. Socioeconomic Change on Global Land Use: Integrating Land Surface Model (CLM) with Global Economic Model (iPETS) 主讲人：任晓琳 美国国家大气研究中心研究科学家 主持人：蒋耒文 亚洲人口研究中心主任；美国国家大气研究中心研究科学家 主办单位：9001诚信金沙亚洲人口研究中心暨人口研究所 合办单位：上海研究院城市社会治理研究中心 讲座时间：2016年6月28日星期二, 11：00-12:00 讲座地点：9001诚信金沙延长校区北大楼207 讲座简介： Regional crop yields are vulnerable to climate change but also sensitive to local economic status. We assess the global impacts of climate change and socioeconomic development pathways on agricultural systems under two climate projections (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) and two different socioeconomic pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) in order to quantify the differences in impacts of climate and the underlying socioeconomic conditions. The integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, a global integrated assessment model for projecting future energy use, land use and emissions, is used in conjunction a griddedland surface model (CLM)to evaluate climate change and socioeconomic impacts on agriculture production and global land use. We employ climate impacts on crop yield derived from CLM, driven by CESM simulations of the two RCPs. These yield effects are applied within iPETS, imposed on baseline and mitigation scenarios for SSP3 and SSP5 that are consistent with the RCPs. We find that the reduced level of warming in RCP4.5 (relative to RCP8.5) can have either positive or negative effects on the economy since crop yield either increases or decreases with climate change depending on assumptions about CO2 fertilization. We also find that in the mitigation scenarios, crop prices are substantially affected by mitigation actions as well as by climate impacts. For the scenarios we evaluated, the development pathway (SSP3 vs SSP5) has a larger impact on outcomes than climate (RCP4.5 vs RCP8.5), by a factor of 3 for crop prices, 11 for total cropland use, and 21 for GDP on global average. 主讲人简介： Xiaolin Ren is a Project Scientist in the Integrated Assessment Modeling group within the Climate & Global Dynamics Division at NCAR. After she got her Master's degree in Environmental Engineering, she started to pursue her PhD in environmental economics. During her PhD training, she had worked on several projects, including optimal strategy design, survey data analysis, survey design, new product market share prediction, and policy evaluation. After years of study, her interests have converged on the interaction between climate change and economic development. Currently at NCAR, she is working with the PET model, the socio-economic model in the integrated assessment model, to evaluate the relationship between economic development and greenhouse gas emissions. The current focus of her research is climate impact analyses on agriculture and the economy. 联系人：徐芬芳 联系电话：021-66135205 电子邮件：xufenfang2008@163.com ******************************************************* 9001诚信金沙社会学院 School of Sociology and Political Science，Shanghai University