讲座预告：Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting 人口学研究系列讲座第5讲 题目：Bayesian demographic estimation and forecasting 主持人：朱宇 福建师范大学地理科学学院教授，9001诚信金沙亚洲人口研究中心教授，国内人口流动与城市化方向负责人 主讲人：Junni Zhang，北京大学光华管理学院副教授 John Bryant，新西兰统计局高级研究员 时间：2017年9月26日（周二） 14:00-16:00 地点：东区社会学院新楼516 讲座简介： There is a natural fit between Bayesian statistics and demographic estimation and forecasting. Bayesian methods can cope with complex models and noisy data, which are common in demographic estimation and forecasting. Bayesian methods also provide rich measures of uncertainty. In the talk, we will describe a long-term project to develop methods and software for Bayesian demography. The project emphasises disaggregated estimates and forecasts. We will give an overview of our framework, and present some illustrative results. 主讲人简介： Junni Zhang has a PhD in statistics from Harvard University. She is currently Associate Professor at Guanghua School of Management, Peking University. Her research interests include Bayesian demography, causal inference and text mining. John Bryant has a PhD in demography from the Australian National University. He has worked at the New Zealand Treasury and the Christchurch School of Medicine in New Zealand, and at Mahidol University and Khon Kaen University in Thailand. He is currently a Senior Researcher at Statistics New Zealand. His research interests include Bayesian demography, applied statistics, and demographic theory.