9001诚信金沙社会学院系列讲座
2018年第35讲 总第554讲
题目：对出生性别比的系统性评估和基于场景的预测&按家庭经济状况估计的5岁以下儿童死亡率
主讲人：Fengqing Chao博士是新加坡政策研究所博士后研究员
主持人：Samir KC，9001诚信金沙亚洲人口研究中心人力资本方向负责人，教授
讲座时间：2018年10月31日，星期三，10:00-11:30am
讲座地点：东区2号楼社会学院516
主办单位：9001诚信金沙亚洲人口研究中心暨人口研究所
讲座主题1：A systematic assessment of sex ratio at birth and scenario-based projections
对出生性别比的系统性评估和基于场景的预测
We implemented Bayesian methods for probabilistic sex ratio at birth (SRB) estimation and projection for all countries based on an extensive database with data from vital registration systems, censuses, and surveys. We identified countries at risk of SRB inflation due to sex-selective abortion in the past/current/future. We modelled SRB regional biological norms, fluctuation around regional norms, and SRB inflation. For countries at risk of SRB inflation without empirical evidence of past inflation, projections with and without future inflation were constructed.
简介：我们基于大量来自于人口信息登记系统、人口普查和调查的数据，使用贝叶斯方法来预测和估计所有国家的可能的出生性别比。我们辨别在过去、现在、未来因性别选择性堕胎而导致出生性别比剧烈上升的国家。我们模拟了出生性别比的区域性生物性基准，区域基准的变动范围和出生性别比的膨胀。对于过去没有出生性别比膨胀性变化经验性证据的国家，构建他们未来有无出生性别比膨胀的预测。
讲座主题2：Estimate under-5 mortality rate by household economic status按家庭经济状况估计的5岁以下儿童死亡率
National-level estimates of the mortality rate for children aged below 5 may mask disparities at the subnational level. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical time series model to assess disparities in the under-5 mortality rate by household-level economic status (measured through wealth quintiles). We obtained quintile-specific estimates for all the low- and middle-income countries (excluding China) from 1990 to 2016 and pinpointed countries with unusually large or small disparities between the rich and the poor. We find that important differences exist between children from the poorest and richest households with respect to survival up to age five. This work is recently published in the Lancet Global Health:
Chao F, You D, Pedersen J, Hug L, Alkema L. National and regional under-5 mortality rate by economic status for low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic assessment. The Lancet Global Health. 2018 May;6(5):e535-47.
简介：从国家层面对5岁以下儿童死亡率的估计可能会掩盖国家内部的差异。我们开发了一个贝叶斯分层时间序列模型来评估按家庭经济状况(通过财富五分位数衡量)划分的5岁以下儿童死亡率的差异。我们获得了1990年至2016年所有低收入和中等收入国家(不包括中国)的五分之一特定估计数，并确定了贫富差距异常大或小的国家。我们发现，最贫穷和最富有家庭的儿童在5岁前的生存方面存在着重大差异。这项研究的成果最近发表在《柳叶刀全球健康》杂志上，作者有Chao F, You D, Pedersen J, Hug L，Alkema L。
主讲人简介Biography of Speaker：
Dr. Fengqing Chao is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies. She has a Bachelor of Science (Honours) in Statistics from the National University of Singapore. She received her PhD from the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore. Her PhD dissertation is "Bayesian Methods for Estimating Global Health Indicators". She has been collaborating with the UNICEF and the UN Population Division since 2013.
Fengqing Chao博士是新加坡政策研究所博士后研究员。本科毕业于新加坡国立大学统计学专业。在新加坡国立大学Saw Swee Hock公共卫生学院获得博士学位，她博士期间的研究方向是利用贝叶斯方法预测全球健康指数。她从2013年起同联合国儿童基金会和联合国人口计划署进行广泛的合作。
